Tue, Apr 4, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Colorado Avalanche 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 03 | 317 | 07 | 00 | 327 |
| COL | 016 | 218 | 116 | 11 | 451 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:28CHIArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 4:15CHIRyan HartmanAssists: Marcus Kruger · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 10:57CHIMarcus KrugerAssists: Michal Rozsival, Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 12:16COLMatt DucheneSHAssists: Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 16:31COLGabriel LandeskogSHUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 5:46COLMikhail GrigorenkoAssists: Matt Duchene, Mark Barberio · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 1:57COLErik JohnsonGWGAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:57CHIBrent Seabrook: Interference2 min
- P1 18:42COLRene Bourque: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:36COLFrancois Beauchemin: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:06COLNathan MacKinnon: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:56CHINick Schmaltz: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:28CHIBrian Campbell: Holding2 min
- P3 12:42CHIJohnny Oduya: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Compher won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDesjardins – Jurco – Hinostroza10:51
xG 0.98–0.70 (58%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Hossa – Kruger – Hartman7:25
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Kane – Kero – Panarin7:14
xG 0.12–0.14 (45%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Toews – Panik – Schmaltz10:35
xG 0.24–0.49 (32%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Oduya – van Riemsdyk2:42
xG 0.07–0.07 (51%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Oduya – Seabrook12:24
xG 0.94–0.99 (49%)attempts 12–21goals 0–0
- Campbell – van Riemsdyk14:19
xG 0.33–0.50 (40%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBourque – Andrighetto – MacKinnon13:29
xG 0.85–0.20 (81%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Duchene – Nieto – Compher9:19
xG 0.69–0.08 (90%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Grimaldi – Landeskog – Jost9:46
xG 0.24–0.23 (52%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Soderberg – Colborne – Grigorenko7:35
xG 0.23–0.91 (20%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Barrie16:13
xG 0.95–0.48 (67%)attempts 23–13goals 0–1
- Johnson – Barberio12:36
xG 1.42–0.99 (59%)attempts 17–17goals 1–0
- Barberio – Barrie3:15
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).