Tue, Apr 4, 2017·Honda Center, Anaheim
Calgary Flames 1, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 111 | 09 | 07 | 127 |
| ANA | 03 | 29 | 18 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:19CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Mark Giordano, Kris Versteeg · Tip-in, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 0:48ANAPatrick EavesAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 13:02ANAKevin BieksaGWGAssists: Antoine Vermette, Corey Perry · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 6:43ANAChris WagnerAssists: Logan Shaw, Nate Thompson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
Penalties (26)
- P1 7:47ANACorey Perry: Holding2 min
- P1 17:11CGYTJ Brodie: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:26ANARickard Rakell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 7:00CGYMark Giordano: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:00ANAJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:39CGYMicheal Ferland: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:39CGYMicheal Ferland: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:39ANAKorbinian Holzer: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:39CGYSean Monahan: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:39ANARyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:39CGYMicheal Ferland: Misconduct10 min
- P3 8:24ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:24CGYDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:14ANABrandon Montour: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:26ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:42CGYMikael Backlund: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:59CGYMatt Bartkowski: Instigator2 min
- P3 16:59CGYMatt Bartkowski: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:59CGYMatt Bartkowski: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 16:59ANAKorbinian Holzer: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:59ANARyan Kesler: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:59ANARyan Kesler: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:59CGYMichael Frolik: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:59CGYMichael Frolik: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:59CGYDeryk Engelland: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00CGYMikael Backlund: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk11:59
xG 0.67–0.46 (59%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan7:32
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Chiasson – Bennett9:52
xG 0.15–0.29 (35%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Stajan – Brouwer – Bouma8:55
xG 0.26–0.41 (39%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Bartkowski13:14
xG 0.46–0.20 (69%)attempts 16–8goals 0–2
- Giordano – Hamilton13:53
xG 0.43–0.62 (41%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Stone – Brodie14:00
xG 0.63–0.93 (40%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Perry – Ritchie9:53
xG 0.54–0.29 (65%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Thompson – Wagner – Shaw6:07
xG 0.16–0.06 (73%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Eaves – Rakell10:59
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg9:56
xG 0.54–0.66 (45%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bieksa – Holzer12:08
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Fowler – Montour11:53
xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Manson – Theodore12:37
xG 0.59–0.76 (44%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).