Tue, Apr 4, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Edmonton Oilers 4, Los Angeles Kings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 28 | 110 | 19 | 427 |
| LAK | 07 | 312 | 38 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:31EDMMilan LucicPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 11:13EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Jordan Eberle, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 2:22LAKNicholas ShoreAssists: Jonny Brodzinski, Dustin Brown · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 12:29LAKDustin BrownAssists: Nicholas Shore · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 15:30LAKNic DowdAssists: Kyle Clifford, Jonny Brodzinski · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–3
- P2 16:46EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Zack Kassian, Darnell Nurse · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 1:40LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Nicholas Shore, Paul LaDue · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–4
- P3 10:09LAKTanner PearsonGWGAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Snap, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 13:48EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–5
- P3 18:39LAKDrew DoughtyENAssists: Nicholas Shore · Slap, 0.52 xG4–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:33LAKAnze Kopitar: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 5:50EDMAdam Larsson: Holding2 min
- P2 9:59EDMZack Kassian: Holding2 min
- P2 16:51LAKTrevor Lewis: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:07EDMAdam Larsson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLetestu – Slepyshev – Caggiula10:39
xG 0.49–0.03 (94%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Lucic – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins10:13
xG 0.68–0.85 (45%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Maroon – Draisaitl – McDavid14:26
xG 0.29–0.77 (27%)attempts 10–13goals 1–2
- Pouliot – Desharnais – Kassian7:26
xG 0.06–0.90 (6%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom13:32
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Russell – Klefbom2:37
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Larsson – Nurse2:12
xG 0.01–0.08 (10%)attempts 1–1goals 1–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestClifford – Dowd – Brodzinski8:59
xG 1.43–0.01 (99%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Toffoli – Pearson10:44
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Brown – Lewis – Shore10:38
xG 0.38–0.60 (39%)attempts 4–14goals 1–3
- Iginla – Carter – Kempe9:36
xG 0.20–0.49 (29%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez15:35
xG 1.19–0.63 (65%)attempts 16–17goals 0–2
- McNabb – LaDue10:27
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Doughty – Forbort17:18
xG 0.60–0.80 (43%)attempts 11–18goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).