Wed, Apr 5, 2017·Verizon Center, Washington
New York Rangers 0, Washington Capitals 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 09 | 09 | 06 | 024 |
| WSH | 06 | 111 | 18 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:49WSHJustin WilliamsPPGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Deflected, 0.21 xG0–1
- P3 5:42WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Marcus Johansson, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:05NYRChris Kreider: Holding2 min
- P2 1:53WSHJustin Williams: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 2:56NYRJ.T. Miller: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:34WSHKarl Alzner: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:34NYRJimmy Vesey: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:09NYRBrendan Smith: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beagle won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGlass – Lindberg – Puempel9:04
xG 0.78–0.12 (87%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Buchnevich10:30
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller12:36
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Pirri – Zibanejad – Vesey11:21
xG 0.16–0.49 (24%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Staal16:23
xG 0.82–0.19 (81%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Clendening13:34
xG 0.16–0.16 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Girardi – Smith16:32
xG 0.53–0.90 (37%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom13:17
xG 0.50–0.30 (63%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson8:13
xG 0.13–0.08 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky9:54
xG 0.16–0.18 (48%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov13:45
xG 0.49–0.57 (46%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Shattenkirk16:17
xG 0.55–0.20 (74%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Orlov17:36
xG 0.44–0.67 (40%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Alzner – Schmidt14:18
xG 0.25–0.60 (30%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).