Thu, Apr 6, 2017·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 2, Boston Bruins 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 17 | 07 | 02 | 1 | 226 |
| BOS | 115 | 07 | 03 | 04 | 0 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:37BOSDrew StaffordPPAssists: Zdeno Chara · Wrap-around, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 7:37OTTAlexandre BurrowsUnassisted · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. BOS Drew Stafford stopped
- 2. OTT Kyle Turris scored
- 3. BOS Ryan Spooner stopped
- 4. OTT Derick Brassard stopped
- 5. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:19OTTMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:33BOSDominic Moore: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:33OTTTommy Wingels: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:07BOSDavid Krejci: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:05BOSZdeno Chara: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:27OTTRyan Dzingel: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:27BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKelly – MacArthur – Wingels3:48
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Dzingel – Pageau2:21
xG 0.17–0.07 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Turris – Hoffman – Stone3:36
xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Burrows – Stalberg – Brassard8:22
xG 0.29–0.52 (36%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Ceci5:24
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Harpur7:46
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Harpur6:23
xG 0.18–0.22 (46%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Backes – Vatrano7:22
xG 0.89–0.23 (79%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Spooner – Kuraly5:26
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Moore – Bergeron – Backes2:19
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Nash – Kuraly – Acciari2:57
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Miller2:25
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Liles – McQuaid5:34
xG 0.33–0.08 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Chara – Carlo14:00
xG 0.64–0.45 (58%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).