Thu, Apr 6, 2017·Prudential Center, Newark
Pittsburgh Penguins 7, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 28 | 312 | 28 | 728 |
| NJD | 112 | 316 | 010 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:59NJDStefan NoesenAssists: Beau Bennett, Jacob Josefson · Snap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 14:24PITBryan RustAssists: Nick Bonino · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 17:07PITJake GuentzelAssists: Nick Bonino, Justin Schultz · Snap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 0:10NJDJohn MooreAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Adam Henrique · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 2:09PITJosh ArchibaldAssists: Scott Wilson, Carter Rowney · Snap, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 3:05PITConor ShearyAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.11 xG4–2
- P2 5:34NJDTaylor HallPPAssists: Andy Greene, Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.01 xG4–3
- P2 7:45PITPatric HornqvistPPGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.35 xG5–3
- P2 18:36NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.23 xG5–4
- P3 1:56PITMatt CullenSHAssists: Tom Kuhnhackl, Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.15 xG6–4
- P3 16:53PITNick BoninoPPAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Chad Ruhwedel · Tip-in, 0.09 xG7–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:14PITIan Cole: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:53NJDBen Thomson: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:14PITRon Hainsey: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:24NJDTaylor Hall: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:52PITJake Guentzel: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:11NJDAdam Henrique: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Archibald – Rowney8:32
xG 1.09–0.08 (93%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Cullen – Hornqvist – Kuhnhackl11:11
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Sheary12:31
xG 0.53–0.83 (39%)attempts 9–14goals 1–2
- Kessel – Bonino – Rust11:44
xG 0.31–0.85 (27%)attempts 4–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz16:11
xG 0.79–0.71 (53%)attempts 14–16goals 2–1
- Hainsey – Ruhwedel13:35
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Daley – Dumoulin12:40
xG 0.80–0.89 (47%)attempts 7–17goals 1–2
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestColeman – Thomson – Wood8:06
xG 0.52–0.26 (67%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Zajac – Henrique – Palmieri11:48
xG 0.75–0.55 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Cammalleri – Hall – Zacha9:38
xG 0.17–0.07 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Josefson – Bennett – Noesen7:29
xG 0.10–0.26 (27%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Lovejoy14:18
xG 0.71–0.56 (56%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Merrill – Kapla15:22
xG 0.64–0.50 (56%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Moore – Severson13:57
xG 0.66–0.96 (41%)attempts 19–7goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).