Thu, Apr 6, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Islanders 3, Carolina Hurricanes 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 211 | 16 | 06 | 323 |
| CAR | 06 | 015 | 08 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:27NYIBrock NelsonGWGUnassisted · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 4:39NYIScott MayfieldAssists: Anders Lee, Anthony Beauvillier · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 0:39NYIAndrew LaddPPAssists: Josh Bailey, Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.03 xG3–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:48NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:26NYIScott Mayfield: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:59CARVictor Rask: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 17:04NYIAndrew Ladd: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:56CARDerek Ryan: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:29CARNoah Hanifin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ryan won the faceoff against Quine
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Ho-Sang – Beauvillier8:53
xG 1.20–0.54 (69%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Chimera – Ladd – Quine8:42
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Bailey – Lee – Nelson3:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ladd – Beauvillier2:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – de Haan13:27
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy8:53
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech10:10
xG 0.29–0.56 (34%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestBickell – McGinn – Ryan5:21
xG 0.28–0.03 (91%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Nordstrom – Rask – Teravainen8:19
xG 0.44–0.23 (65%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Skinner – Poturalski7:24
xG 0.12–0.03 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Lindholm – Aho11:41
xG 0.35–0.36 (49%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Hanifin17:25
xG 0.56–0.28 (67%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Slavin – Pesce15:51
xG 0.35–0.50 (41%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Dahlbeck – Tennyson11:05
xG 0.39–0.93 (30%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).