Thu, Apr 6, 2017·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Winnipeg Jets 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 28 | 112 | 212 | 532 |
| CBJ | 115 | 211 | 113 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:58CBJNick FolignoUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 13:54WPGJacob TroubaPPAssists: Bryan Little, Joel Armia · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 15:25WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Andrew Copp · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 3:49WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 7:12CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Boone Jenner · Snap, 0.30 xG3–2
- P2 12:35CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.59 xG3–3
- P3 4:06WPGJacob TroubaPPAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Bryan Little · Slap, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 9:35WPGBryan LittleGWGAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Julian Melchiori · Backhand, 0.16 xG5–3
- P3 14:00CBJBoone JennerAssists: Scott Hartnell, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Snap, 0.26 xG5–4
Penalties (2)
- P1 10:14CBJScott Harrington: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 3:26CBJMatt Calvert: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Copp12:11
xG 0.91–0.92 (50%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers3:26
xG 0.02–0.11 (15%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
- Lowry – Armia – Ehlers8:39
xG 0.15–0.43 (25%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Roslovic – Tanev5:49
xG 0.08–0.39 (17%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Melchiori19:43
xG 1.02–0.95 (52%)attempts 18–15goals 2–1
- Byfuglien – Trouba2:29
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Stuart – Nogier11:20
xG 0.27–1.17 (19%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Saad – Wennberg13:59
xG 1.89–0.54 (78%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Hartnell – Jenner – Bjorkstrand12:27
xG 0.78–0.43 (65%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson6:15
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Dubinsky – Foligno – Atkinson12:20
xG 0.37–0.44 (46%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard16:15
xG 2.76–0.85 (76%)attempts 23–11goals 4–2
- Quincey – Harrington14:08
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Jones – Nutivaara18:01
xG 0.63–0.71 (47%)attempts 23–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).