Thu, Apr 6, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Nashville Predators 7, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 412 | 216 | 16 | 734 |
| DAL | 011 | 313 | 09 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Craig Smith, Calle Jarnkrok · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 13:02NSHCraig SmithAssists: Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 18:16NSHKevin FialaAssists: PA Parenteau, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P1 18:52NSHViktor ArvidssonGWGAssists: Anthony Bitetto · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–0
- P2 1:06NSHHarry ZolnierczykAssists: Austin Watson, P.K. Subban · Snap, 0.22 xG5–0
- P2 2:47DALJason SpezzaAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–1
- P2 10:30DALRadek FaksaAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Gemel Smith · Tip-in, 0.12 xG5–2
- P2 12:51DALJason DickinsonAssists: Radek Faksa, Remi Elie · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–3
- P2 17:27NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: James Neal, Viktor Arvidsson · Slap, 0.09 xG6–3
- P3 13:52NSHCraig SmithAssists: Anthony Bitetto, Brad Hunt · Slap, 0.04 xG7–3
Penalties (7)
- P2 3:37NSHKevin Fiala: Elbowing2 min
- P2 4:35NSHMattias Ekholm: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:35DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:34DALGreg Pateryn: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:45DALJulius Honka: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:59DALGreg Pateryn: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:59DALGreg Pateryn: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Johansen – Forsberg10:10
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Smith – Jarnkrok – Arvidsson9:28
xG 0.53–0.80 (40%)attempts 11–11goals 3–0
- Watson – Zolnierczyk – Salomaki11:54
xG 0.37–0.75 (33%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Parenteau – Sissons – Fiala12:34
xG 0.80–1.48 (35%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm15:01
xG 0.96–0.83 (54%)attempts 15–17goals 2–2
- Josi – Irwin16:38
xG 0.54–0.77 (41%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
- Bitetto – Hunt15:27
xG 0.42–1.62 (21%)attempts 12–23goals 3–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFaksa – Shore – Smith3:46
xG 0.57–0.03 (96%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Cracknell – Seguin – Elie3:57
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Benn – Eakin – Shore3:44
xG 0.04–0.09 (32%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – Faksa – Smith3:41
xG 0.02–0.13 (11%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Honka3:39
xG 0.93–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Johns – Oleksiak6:28
xG 0.99–0.16 (86%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Honka3:01
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).