Thu, Apr 6, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Calgary Flames 4, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 17 | 310 | 07 | 424 |
| LAK | 111 | 09 | 08 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:57CGYSam BennettPPAssists: Mikael Backlund, Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 6:13LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Jeff Carter, Derek Forbort · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 3:12CGYDennis WidemanGWGAssists: Micheal Ferland, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 10:45CGYFreddie HamiltonAssists: Troy Brouwer, Curtis Lazar · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 14:20CGYAlex ChiassonAssists: TJ Brodie, Kris Versteeg · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:08LAKAnze Kopitar: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:53CGYDougie Hamilton: Holding2 min
- P2 1:03CGYDennis Wideman: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:04CGYMichael Frolik: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:39LAKDerek Forbort: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lazar won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestVersteeg – Chiasson – Bennett10:19
xG 0.19–0.07 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1
- Brouwer – Hamilton – Lazar10:29
xG 0.35–0.37 (49%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan11:12
xG 0.37–0.67 (36%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk12:24
xG 0.32–0.76 (30%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton16:02
xG 0.41–0.28 (59%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Engelland – Bartkowski15:46
xG 0.78–0.86 (48%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Wideman – Brodie14:15
xG 0.21–1.15 (16%)attempts 7–25goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Kopitar – Pearson10:47
xG 0.86–0.39 (69%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Shore – Brodzinski – Kempe2:19
xG 0.44–0.02 (95%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Dowd – Toffoli – Andreoff9:21
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Carter – Brown – Lewis3:48
xG 0.11–0.13 (47%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Gravel15:13
xG 0.99–0.22 (82%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Doughty – Forbort16:30
xG 0.82–0.37 (69%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Muzzin – Martinez14:00
xG 0.76–0.54 (58%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).