Thu, Apr 6, 2017·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Edmonton Oilers 4, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 010 | 111 | 311 | 432 |
| SJS | 15 | 15 | 05 | 215 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:08SJSJoel WardAssists: David Schlemko, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Deflected, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 4:40EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 12:30SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 4:26EDMMilan LucicPPAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Connor McDavid · Deflected, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 7:57EDMMilan LucicGWGAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.51 xG3–2
- P3 16:31EDMMilan LucicPPAssists: Mark Letestu, Oscar Klefbom · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:44EDMJordan Eberle: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 4:04EDMDavid Desharnais: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:34EDMMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:34SJSMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:34SJSMicheal Haley: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 1:00EDMPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:03SJSJustin Braun: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:08EDMAdam Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:19EDMMatt Benning: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 4:18SJSMicheal Haley: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 15:34SJSPatrick Marleau: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:11SJSPatrick Marleau: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins8:57
xG 0.90–0.18 (84%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Letestu – Pakarinen – Caggiula5:49
xG 0.62–0.36 (63%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Maroon – Draisaitl – McDavid15:13
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Desharnais – Kassian7:35
xG 0.05–0.14 (25%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom13:26
xG 1.13–0.30 (79%)attempts 16–12goals 2–1
- Sekera – Russell16:04
xG 0.51–0.57 (47%)attempts 10–21goals 0–0
- Benning – Nurse9:43
xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Karlsson – Labanc7:21
xG 0.26–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Marleau – Pavelski – Labanc2:02
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hansen – Boedker – Hertl10:23
xG 0.12–0.26 (31%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Haley – Sorensen – Tierney6:31
xG 0.31–0.57 (35%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Martin – Burns11:13
xG 0.26–0.30 (47%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun14:40
xG 0.44–0.55 (44%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Schlemko – Dillon13:15
xG 0.37–1.26 (23%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).