Sat, Apr 8, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Rangers 1, Ottawa Senators 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 04 | 05 | 110 | 119 |
| OTT | 04 | 216 | 113 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:04OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Mark Stone, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 9:24OTTDerick BrassardGWGAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Alexandre Burrows · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 6:19OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Mark Borowiecki, Mark Stone · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–3
- P3 19:14NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Chris Kreider · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:49OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:49NYRTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:29NYRBrandon Pirri: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:00NYROscar Lindberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:55OTTAlexandre Burrows: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:55NYRBrendan Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:53NYRKevin Hayes: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:53OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:08OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Glass – Lindberg – Puempel11:30
xG 0.22–0.27 (45%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich12:58
xG 0.27–0.63 (30%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller9:11
xG 0.22–0.67 (24%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Beck – Pirri – Vesey8:59
xG 0.13–1.08 (10%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Girardi – Smith16:55
xG 0.63–0.91 (41%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
- Klein – Skjei15:00
xG 0.23–0.62 (27%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Kampfer – Clendening13:12
xG 0.16–0.86 (16%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Stone – Pageau8:01
xG 1.18–0.16 (88%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- MacArthur – Turris – Dzingel10:21
xG 0.77–0.23 (77%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Burrows – Stalberg – Brassard7:43
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Kelly – Pyatt – Wingels6:17
xG 0.25–0.14 (63%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Ceci13:25
xG 1.59–0.15 (91%)attempts 21–5goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Harpur12:01
xG 0.70–0.29 (70%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Wideman – Claesson16:07
xG 0.37–0.37 (50%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).