Sat, Apr 8, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 07 | 25 | 010 | 222 |
| PHI | 210 | 210 | 04 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:52PHIPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Chris VandeVelde, Roman Lyubimov · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 14:24PHIMichael Del ZottoAssists: Brayden Schenn, Dale Weise · Wrist, 0.00 xG0–2
- P2 1:07CBJSeth JonesPPAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 6:42PHIJakub VoracekPPGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 13:48PHISean CouturierAssists: Ivan Provorov, Andrew MacDonald · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–4
- P2 16:00CBJBoone JennerAssists: Sam Gagner, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P2 0:44PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:51CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:13CBJKyle Quincey: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:30CBJJosh Anderson: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:30PHIBrandon Manning: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:30PHIBrandon Manning: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:30CBJJosh Anderson: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:22CBJScott Hartnell: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:08PHIBrandon Manning: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg10:39
xG 0.35–0.17 (68%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Dubinsky – Foligno – Atkinson9:03
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg3:04
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson6:32
xG 0.44–0.61 (42%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Carlsson15:01
xG 0.41–0.34 (54%)attempts 9–10goals 0–3
- Johnson – Savard17:32
xG 0.31–0.28 (53%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Quincey – Nutivaara12:29
xG 0.42–1.11 (28%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Konecny10:02
xG 0.22–0.10 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Weise – Schenn – Couturier12:05
xG 0.52–0.44 (55%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov8:43
xG 0.08–0.03 (74%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Weal10:45
xG 0.37–0.44 (46%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Del Zotto11:41
xG 0.70–0.18 (80%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- MacDonald – Provorov11:54
xG 0.36–0.04 (91%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov2:19
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).