Sat, Apr 8, 2017·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Islanders 4, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 04 | 210 | 26 | 420 |
| NJD | 014 | 011 | 214 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:48NYIAdam PelechAssists: Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 6:23NYIAnders LeeAssists: Nick Leddy, Anthony Beauvillier · Slap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 3:52NYIJason ChimeraGWGAssists: Alan Quine, Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–0
- P3 5:00NJDBeau BennettUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 8:11NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Josh Bailey, Nick Leddy · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 19:57NJDBeau BennettAssists: Dalton Prout, Miles Wood · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:37NJDDamon Severson: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:33NJDJohn Moore: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:03NYIJoshua Ho-Sang: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 4:18NJDTravis Zajac: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:59NYIBrock Nelson: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:28NJDMiles Wood: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:27NYIAdam Pelech: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Quine
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ladd – Quine7:23
xG 0.59–0.39 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Gionta – Clutterbuck – Kulemin6:59
xG 0.22–0.40 (35%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Lee – Ho-Sang – Beauvillier8:12
xG 0.13–0.54 (19%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy6:55
xG 0.17–0.04 (83%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech7:26
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – de Haan14:48
xG 0.63–1.47 (30%)attempts 7–24goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Henrique – Palmieri9:30
xG 0.77–0.28 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Hall – Zacha9:14
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 17–4goals 0–1
- Bennett – Coleman – Wood2:05
xG 0.12–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Josefson – Bennett – Noesen4:12
xG 0.08–0.03 (72%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Lovejoy6:39
xG 0.47–0.01 (97%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Prout – Merrill3:49
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Prout – Moore5:12
xG 0.25–0.05 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).