Sat, Apr 8, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
St. Louis Blues 5, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 115 | 214 | 16 | 04 | 2 | 539 |
| CAR | 211 | 19 | 113 | 05 | 1 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:26STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 9:10CARKlas DahlbeckAssists: Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–1
- P1 19:31CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Brett Pesce, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–2
- P2 5:19STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 14:11CARJoakim NordstromAssists: Sergey Tolchinsky, Victor Rask · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 19:06STLRyan ReavesAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Scottie Upshall · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 2:03STLScottie UpshallSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–3
- P3 9:14CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Noah Hanifin, Brett Pesce · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. CAR Lee Stempniak scored
- 2. STL David Perron stopped
- 3. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
- 4. STL Patrik Berglund scored
- 5. CAR Jaccob Slavin stopped
- 6. STL Zachary Sanford stopped
- 7. CAR Sebastian Aho stopped
- 8. STL Vladimir Tarasenko scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:03STLAlexander Steen: Holding2 min
- P1 10:10STLColton Parayko: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:50CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:26CARKlas Dahlbeck: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:10CARJustin Faulk: Holding2 min
- P3 1:13STLColton Parayko: Hooking2 min
- OT 1:06STLColton Parayko: Tripping2 min
- OT 4:01CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ryan won the faceoff against Barbashev
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Schwartz – Barbashev11:17
xG 0.63–0.33 (66%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Paajarvi – Jaskin – Sanford5:46
xG 0.22–0.08 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves10:12
xG 0.59–0.71 (45%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Steen – Berglund – Perron10:58
xG 0.21–0.84 (20%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Schmaltz10:02
xG 0.72–0.61 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Edmundson – Parayko18:27
xG 0.67–0.89 (43%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:05
xG 0.32–0.84 (27%)attempts 8–16goals 2–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Skinner – Lindholm11:06
xG 0.85–0.25 (77%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Stempniak – Skinner – Rask2:02
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho12:53
xG 0.40–0.44 (47%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Bickell – McGinn – Ryan8:02
xG 0.00–0.33 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Hanifin11:11
xG 0.87–0.23 (79%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Slavin – Pesce7:14
xG 0.61–0.12 (84%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Faulk – Hanifin5:35
xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).