Sat, Apr 8, 2017·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Nashville Predators 1, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 07 | 121 | 06 | 134 |
| WPG | 014 | 06 | 216 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:31NSHRyan EllisSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.33 xG1–0
- P3 10:47WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Adam Lowry · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P3 19:15WPGBlake WheelerSHGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Dustin Byfuglien · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:58WPGNikolaj Ehlers: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:55WPGAdam Lowry: Holding2 min
- P2 7:48WPGChris Thorburn: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:36WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:06NSHViktor Arvidsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:21WPGJoel Armia: Interference2 min
- P3 7:06NSHMatt Irwin: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:47WPGJoel Armia: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Smith – Sissons10:31
xG 0.48–0.20 (71%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Watson – Fiala8:31
xG 0.21–0.41 (34%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- McLeod – Zolnierczyk – Salomaki8:36
xG 0.10–0.59 (15%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson9:23
xG 0.10–0.94 (9%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Irwin13:58
xG 0.66–0.33 (67%)attempts 24–10goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm12:44
xG 0.19–0.84 (18%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Bitetto – Hunt14:02
xG 0.15–1.25 (10%)attempts 5–18goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers12:16
xG 1.04–0.21 (83%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Little – Perreault – Laine12:32
xG 0.65–0.21 (76%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Copp – Tanev4:18
xG 0.38–0.08 (83%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Lowry – Armia – Connor7:18
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey16:08
xG 1.64–0.47 (78%)attempts 23–14goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Melchiori15:02
xG 0.66–0.43 (61%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Stuart – Nogier9:37
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).