Sat, Apr 8, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 3, Dallas Stars 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 04 | 111 | 28 | 01 | 0 | 324 |
| DAL | 118 | 112 | 111 | 04 | 1 | 445 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:40DALDevin ShoreAssists: Cody Eakin, Greg Pateryn · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 0:37DALJamie BennPPAssists: John Klingberg, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 17:35COLMikko RantanenAssists: Tyson Barrie, Sven Andrighetto · Slap, 0.31 xG1–2
- P3 5:37COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Blake Comeau · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 8:24COLTyson BarriePPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Sven Andrighetto · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 13:44DALTyler SeguinAssists: Esa Lindell, John Klingberg · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. COL Matt Duchene stopped
- 2. DAL Tyler Seguin scored
- 3. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 4. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
- 5. COL Mikko Rantanen stopped
Penalties (2)
- P1 19:28COLRocco Grimaldi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:19DALPatrik Nemeth: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Soderberg – Bourque4:34
xG 0.12–0.02 (87%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Bourque – Duchene – Compher7:46
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Soderberg – Grimaldi – Nieto3:25
xG 0.03–0.04 (44%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Comeau – Landeskog – Jost7:19
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Barrie12:35
xG 0.64–0.36 (64%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Siemens – Lindholm3:12
xG 0.19–0.12 (62%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Johnson – Lindholm3:27
xG 0.02–0.09 (18%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Shore – Elie13:14
xG 0.74–0.20 (79%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin12:34
xG 0.88–0.60 (59%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
- Cracknell – Faksa – Dickinson12:50
xG 0.41–0.23 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- McNeill – Smith – Gurianov11:53
xG 0.25–0.38 (39%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Nemeth19:03
xG 1.13–0.25 (82%)attempts 22–13goals 1–1
- Klingberg – Lindell17:57
xG 0.97–0.72 (57%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Honka16:23
xG 0.37–0.66 (36%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).