Sat, Apr 8, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Edmonton Oilers 3, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 114 | 212 | 335 |
| VAN | 011 | 111 | 19 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:01EDMJordan EberleAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 16:36VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 3:04EDMMark LetestuPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom · Deflected, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 9:20EDMIiro PakarinenGWGAssists: Milan Lucic, Matt Benning · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–1
- P3 19:20VANAlexander EdlerAssists: Reid Boucher, Michael Chaput · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 5:04EDMDarnell Nurse: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:04VANBo Horvat: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:04EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:06EDMIiro Pakarinen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:28VANReid Boucher: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 7:10EDMMilan Lucic: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLetestu – Kassian – Caggiula10:25
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Maroon – Draisaitl – McDavid13:11
xG 0.46–0.46 (50%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Desharnais – Pakarinen7:52
xG 0.07–0.20 (27%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Lucic – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins10:48
xG 0.40–0.86 (32%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenning – Nurse10:34
xG 0.77–0.37 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Sekera – Russell14:21
xG 0.53–0.19 (73%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Larsson – Klefbom16:10
xG 0.66–0.52 (56%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoucher – Horvat – Boeser9:58
xG 0.58–0.24 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Sutter – Chaput – Megna11:10
xG 0.22–0.10 (70%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Goldobin11:15
xG 0.12–0.59 (17%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Tryamkin11:48
xG 0.72–0.48 (60%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Tanev12:19
xG 0.13–0.32 (29%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Edler – Stecher8:57
xG 0.14–0.48 (23%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).