Sun, Apr 9, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 08 | 216 | 01 | 2 | 435 |
| PHI | 011 | 117 | 211 | 05 | 1 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:42CARBrock McGinnAssists: Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 8:46PHIDale WeiseAssists: Sean Couturier, Andrew MacDonald · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 8:39CARBrock McGinnAssists: Noah Hanifin, Jordan Staal · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 10:58PHIDale WeiseAssists: Sean Couturier, Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 12:05PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jordan Weal · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 14:50CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHI Jordan Weal stopped
- 2. CAR Bryan Bickell scored
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux scored
- 4. CAR Sergey Tolchinsky stopped
- 5. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
- 6. CAR Brock McGinn scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:32PHIJordan Weal: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:50CARMatt Tennyson: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:30PHIJordan Weal: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:03PHIIvan Provorov: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Rask – Tolchinsky4:59
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho6:44
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Staal – Teravainen – McGinn2:38
xG 0.20–0.12 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
- Bickell – Nordstrom – Ryan3:32
xG 0.01–0.01 (62%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Dahlbeck – Tennyson14:15
xG 0.43–0.68 (39%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
- Faulk – Slavin16:33
xG 0.62–0.90 (41%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- Pesce – Hanifin16:35
xG 0.38–1.35 (22%)attempts 10–22goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Cousins14:19
xG 1.29–0.16 (89%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Bellemare – Konecny – Vecchione7:25
xG 0.55–0.21 (73%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Weise – Schenn – Couturier10:39
xG 0.47–0.44 (52%)attempts 8–7goals 2–1
- Filppula – Simmonds – Weal10:36
xG 0.45–0.45 (50%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Del Zotto11:27
xG 1.07–0.44 (71%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere6:38
xG 0.57–0.28 (67%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Provorov7:26
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).