Sun, Apr 9, 2017·Verizon Center, Washington
Florida Panthers 2, Washington Capitals 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 012 | 13 | 16 | 221 |
| WSH | 015 | 011 | 012 | 038 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:47FLADerek MacKenzieSHGWGAssists: Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 9:47FLADenis MalginPPAssists: Reilly Smith, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–0
Penalties (5)
- P2 4:25FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:33FLAReilly Smith: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:16WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:54FLAJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:54WSHLars Eller: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Trocheck – Huberdeau12:14
xG 1.18–0.25 (83%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Vanek – Smith – Bjugstad9:14
xG 0.24–0.53 (31%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Marchessault – Malgin12:59
xG 0.45–0.95 (32%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – McCoshen8:39
xG 0.71–0.56 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Matheson13:50
xG 0.58–0.65 (47%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
- Yandle – Weegar12:10
xG 0.32–0.70 (31%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Kuznetsov – Wilson12:55
xG 0.54–0.03 (95%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Burakovsky3:25
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Winnik – Mitchell – Stephenson6:05
xG 0.15–0.09 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Carey – Eller – Beagle3:32
xG 0.13–0.16 (45%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChorney – Orlov15:40
xG 0.80–0.24 (77%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Orlov – Schmidt2:01
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Alzner – Schmidt14:23
xG 0.66–0.46 (59%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).