Wed, Oct 4, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
St. Louis Blues 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 212 | 113 | 18 | 11 | 534 |
| PIT | 112 | 110 | 211 | 00 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:37PITJustin SchultzAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 8:31STLBrayden SchennAssists: Carl Gunnarsson, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 17:45STLColton ParaykoPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 12:37PITOlli MaattaAssists: Bryan Rust, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 15:37STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Paul Stastny · Snap, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 3:38STLPaul StastnyAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 13:46PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.34 xG4–3
- P3 14:40PITConor ShearyAssists: Greg McKegg, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4
- OT 1:15STLAlex PietrangeloGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:50PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:26PITOlli Maatta: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:15PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:52STLRobert Bortuzzo: Holding2 min
- P2 14:03PITJake Guentzel: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:55STLTage Thompson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:26STLAlex Pietrangelo: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:10STLRobert Bortuzzo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:26STLBrayden Schenn: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Schwartz – Jaskin9:55
xG 1.30–0.11 (92%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Stastny – Sobotka – Tarasenko14:03
xG 0.46–0.72 (39%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
- Paajarvi – Sundqvist – Thompson8:17
xG 0.08–0.36 (19%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
- Thorburn – Upshall – Brodziak7:28
xG 0.17–0.67 (20%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Parayko12:46
xG 1.08–0.35 (76%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson15:39
xG 0.58–0.80 (42%)attempts 19–18goals 0–1
- Bortuzzo – Dunn11:30
xG 0.17–0.80 (17%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – McKegg – Kuhnhackl10:06
xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Reaves – Wilson – Rowney4:55
xG 0.33–0.33 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Sheary14:00
xG 0.61–0.86 (41%)attempts 16–18goals 1–1
- Malkin – Kessel – Rust10:26
xG 0.39–0.65 (38%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Maatta14:19
xG 0.35–0.18 (67%)attempts 18–9goals 2–0
- Letang – Dumoulin16:10
xG 0.62–0.86 (42%)attempts 19–17goals 0–1
- Hunwick – Cole10:43
xG 0.49–0.88 (36%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).