Wed, Oct 4, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 0, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 013 | 09 | 05 | 027 |
| EDM | 116 | 013 | 216 | 345 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:01EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P3 8:07EDMConnor McDavidUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P3 19:01EDMConnor McDavidENAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.72 xG0–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:12EDMKris Russell: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 15:43EDMZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:43CGYTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:16CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:23CGYDougie Hamilton: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Gaudreau – Monahan13:37
xG 0.74–0.51 (59%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk12:45
xG 0.34–0.49 (41%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Stajan – Glass – Hathaway7:53
xG 0.05–0.39 (11%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Bennett11:13
xG 0.10–0.65 (13%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton17:37
xG 0.90–0.78 (54%)attempts 22–16goals 0–0
- Stone – Brodie3:40
xG 0.08–0.39 (17%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Stone – Bartkowski12:32
xG 0.18–0.62 (22%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Draisaitl – McDavid15:19
xG 1.98–0.50 (80%)attempts 34–15goals 2–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Khaira5:04
xG 0.38–0.11 (78%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Lucic – Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins5:48
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Strome – Caggiula8:50
xG 0.20–0.32 (39%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom17:25
xG 1.80–0.39 (82%)attempts 35–13goals 2–0
- Gryba – Nurse15:52
xG 0.37–0.25 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Russell – Benning14:45
xG 0.78–0.78 (50%)attempts 16–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).