Wed, Oct 4, 2017·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Philadelphia Flyers 5, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 28 | 16 | 217 | 531 |
| SJS | 211 | 013 | 111 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:28PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 11:16PHIJordan WealPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 17:17SJSKevin LabancAssists: Brenden Dillon, Joe Pavelski · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–1
- P1 19:41SJSKevin LabancPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 17:36PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakub Voracek · Tip-in, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 3:12SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 9:27PHIWayne SimmondsPPGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere · Tip-in, 0.19 xG4–3
- P3 19:24PHIWayne SimmondsENAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.71 xG5–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:21SJSKevin Labanc: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 18:09PHIBrandon Manning: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:51PHIRobert Hagg: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:44PHIAndrew MacDonald: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:28SJSKevin Labanc: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:50PHIRadko Gudas: Interference2 min
- P3 2:37PHITravis Konecny: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:21SJSKevin Labanc: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:05SJSMelker Karlsson: Interference2 min
- P3 17:39SJSJoe Pavelski: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:54PHIRadko Gudas: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Weise – Konecny10:02
xG 0.51–0.16 (77%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Weal – Patrick10:39
xG 0.69–0.53 (57%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Laughton – Leier – Raffl6:42
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier11:58
xG 0.50–1.09 (31%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas14:09
xG 0.75–0.33 (69%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Hagg12:18
xG 0.67–0.67 (50%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- MacDonald – Provorov14:05
xG 0.68–1.13 (38%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Boedker – Donskoi9:39
xG 0.84–0.42 (67%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Labanc9:15
xG 0.76–0.56 (57%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Ward – Hertl – Meier8:18
xG 0.27–0.32 (46%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Hansen – Tierney – Karlsson9:51
xG 0.26–0.61 (30%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun13:59
xG 1.20–0.45 (73%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Braun – Dillon2:26
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Burns – Dillon2:10
xG 0.10–0.13 (42%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).