Thu, Oct 5, 2017·TD Garden, Boston
Nashville Predators 3, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 08 | 213 | 329 |
| BOS | 112 | 212 | 18 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:37BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Charlie McAvoy, David Krejci · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 19:49NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 5:48BOSJake DeBruskAssists: David Krejci, Anders Bjork · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 15:43BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: David Krejci, Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 17:07BOSBrad MarchandENGWGAssists: Brandon Carlo · Wrist, 0.53 xG1–4
- P3 18:12NSHScott HartnellPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–4
- P3 19:25NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:07BOSFrank Vatrano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 7:58NSHRoman Josi: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:58NSHMatt Irwin: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:56BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:56NSHCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:51BOSSean Kuraly: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:03BOSCharlie McAvoy: Holding2 min
- P2 3:44NSHColton Sissons: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:44NSHCody McLeod: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:37BOSCharlie McAvoy: Holding2 min
- P2 12:29NSHAlexei Emelin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:03BOSCharlie McAvoy: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:55BOSKevan Miller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 17:35BOSZdeno Chara: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson8:23
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Smith – Salomaki – Sissons5:40
xG 0.11–0.15 (43%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Bonino – Fiala6:19
xG 0.01–0.11 (12%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
- McLeod – Jarnkrok – Watson2:44
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Josi – Irwin13:56
xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Subban – Ekholm12:01
xG 0.35–0.53 (40%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Emelin – Weber6:49
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Bjork – DeBrusk5:57
xG 0.49–0.09 (84%)attempts 8–2goals 2–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – DeBrusk4:48
xG 0.16–0.03 (86%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Kuraly – Vatrano4:35
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Nash – Schaller – Acciari2:15
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlo11:22
xG 0.49–0.29 (63%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Grzelcyk6:31
xG 0.17–0.06 (72%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Miller – McAvoy13:03
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).