Thu, Oct 5, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Colorado Avalanche 4, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 27 | 112 | 17 | 426 |
| NYR | 214 | 011 | 014 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:29COLMatt DucheneAssists: Patrik Nemeth, Nail Yakupov · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 10:53COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Slap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 17:28NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk · Snap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P1 19:58NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Pavel Buchnevich · Slap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 17:50COLTyson BarrieGWGAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Chris Bigras · Slap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 19:57COLGabriel LandeskogENAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.50 xG4–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 5:36COLMatt Nieto: Elbowing2 min
- P1 9:43NYRFilip Chytil: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:13COLMatt Nieto: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:20COLAndrei Mironov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:22NYRRyan McDonagh: Interference2 min
- P2 7:58COLGabriel Landeskog: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:58NYRRick Nash: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:58COLJ.T. Compher: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:05NYRJ.T. Miller: Interference2 min
- P2 11:09COLNathan MacKinnon: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:21NYRJimmy Vesey: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:13NYRRyan McDonagh: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:05COLMatt Nieto: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:12COLTyson Jost: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Yakupov – Kerfoot8:48
xG 0.56–0.40 (58%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
- Comeau – Nieto – Jost6:30
xG 0.39–0.39 (49%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Wilson – Landeskog – Compher9:45
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Andrighetto – MacKinnon – Rantanen9:05
xG 0.21–0.64 (25%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Nemeth8:55
xG 0.45–0.22 (68%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Nemeth2:22
xG 0.21–0.04 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Johnson – Barberio6:06
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich9:14
xG 0.73–0.18 (80%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller9:59
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Carey – Vesey4:54
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Vesey2:08
xG 0.07–0.22 (23%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – McDonagh14:01
xG 0.74–0.63 (54%)attempts 16–8goals 0–2
- Staal – DeAngelo9:59
xG 0.57–0.58 (50%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Smith – Skjei12:39
xG 0.44–0.45 (49%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).