Thu, Oct 5, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Washington Capitals 5, Ottawa Senators 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 16 | 012 | 37 | 03 | 2 | 528 |
| OTT | 15 | 111 | 210 | 06 | 1 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:25OTTChris WidemanAssists: Derick Brassard, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 8:07WSHBrett ConnollyAssists: Lars Eller, Matt Niskanen · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 6:52OTTMark StoneAssists: Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 2:03OTTDerick BrassardAssists: Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
- P3 4:15WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 5:38WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Jakub Vrana · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 6:55OTTMark StoneAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Chris Wideman · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 10:48WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Jakub Vrana · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. OTT Bobby Ryan scored
- 2. WSH T.J. Oshie stopped
- 3. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
- 4. WSH Alex Ovechkin scored
- 5. OTT Derick Brassard stopped
- 6. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:39WSHLars Eller: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:29WSHAaron Ness: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 13:19WSHTyler Graovac: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:58OTTBobby Ryan: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:04WSHAaron Ness: Slashing2 min
- OT 1:04WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Vrana14:09
xG 0.85–0.19 (82%)attempts 19–13goals 3–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky14:10
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Beagle – Smith-Pelly – Graovac5:55
xG 0.20–0.12 (63%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Eller – Chiasson – Connolly8:14
xG 0.20–0.56 (26%)attempts 7–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestChorney – Ness9:17
xG 0.41–0.12 (77%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Orlov18:28
xG 0.46–0.54 (46%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Orpik – Carlson16:46
xG 0.47–0.68 (41%)attempts 13–14goals 0–3
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Brassard – Stone9:19
xG 0.58–0.13 (82%)attempts 7–4goals 4–0
- Burrows – Dzingel – Brown4:29
xG 0.01–0.07 (17%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Thompson – Pyatt – Pageau8:36
xG 0.05–0.33 (14%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Turris – Smith – Hoffman8:51
xG 0.21–0.77 (21%)attempts 8–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Claesson5:21
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Oduya – Wideman2:11
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Claesson8:25
xG 0.13–0.18 (42%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).