Thu, Oct 5, 2017·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Minnesota Wild 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 015 | 011 | 213 | 239 |
| DET | 013 | 210 | 28 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:40DETAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Martin Frk, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.66 xG0–1
- P2 15:03DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Mike Green, Anthony Mantha · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 2:00MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Chris Stewart, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 2:48MINChris StewartAssists: Tyler Ennis, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 7:07DETHenrik ZetterbergGWGAssists: Mike Green, Tomas Tatar · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 10:39DETMartin FrkAssists: Anthony Mantha, Mike Green · Slap, 0.06 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:47DETAnthony Mantha: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 8:59MINMikko Koivu: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:50DETMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:13DETTrevor Daley: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:29DETDavid Booth: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:31MINMathew Dumba: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:16MINDaniel Winnik: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:27MINCharlie Coyle: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:44MINEric Staal: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Winnik – Ennis9:06
xG 0.84–0.38 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Coyle – Niederreiter11:17
xG 0.60–0.36 (62%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Stewart – Foligno – Eriksson Ek8:47
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund9:37
xG 0.18–0.37 (32%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Reilly9:50
xG 0.65–0.30 (69%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba15:04
xG 0.86–0.60 (59%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Suter – Spurgeon18:05
xG 0.89–0.72 (55%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Frk – Mantha – Larkin6:43
xG 0.40–0.38 (51%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Booth – Sheahan – Glendening5:21
xG 0.17–0.25 (41%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Helm10:26
xG 0.28–0.54 (34%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar11:52
xG 0.22–0.91 (19%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Ouellet6:23
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Green – Ouellet9:26
xG 0.37–0.43 (46%)attempts 7–8goals 2–1
- Daley – DeKeyser15:38
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).