Thu, Oct 5, 2017·United Center, Chicago
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Chicago Blackhawks 10
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 012 | 114 | 03 | 129 |
| CHI | 521 | 314 | 29 | 1044 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:21CHIRyan HartmanAssists: Patrick Kane, Michal Kempny · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 7:06CHIBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Richard Panik · Deflected, 0.27 xG0–2
- P1 7:34CHINick SchmaltzAssists: Patrick Kane, Ryan Hartman · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–3
- P1 9:16CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–4
- P1 17:01CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Artem Anisimov, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–5
- P2 2:05PITPhil KesselPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–5
- P2 3:49CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Ryan Hartman, Gustav Forsling · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–6
- P2 9:18CHIRichard PanikAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Jan Rutta · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–7
- P2 10:40CHINick SchmaltzAssists: Patrick Kane, Ryan Hartman · Slap, 0.05 xG1–8
- P3 5:21CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Jonathan Toews, Brent Seabrook · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–9
- P3 13:45CHIBrent SeabrookAssists: John Hayden, Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–10
Penalties (10)
- P1 19:58PITKris Letang: Interference2 min
- P2 0:27CHIJonathan Toews: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:22CHIJan Rutta: Interference2 min
- P2 4:21PITCarl Hagelin: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:12PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:28PITJustin Schultz: Holding2 min
- P2 14:57PITCarl Hagelin: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:33PITPhil Kessel: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:50PITTom Kuhnhackl: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:50PITRyan Reaves: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Rust4:51
xG 0.46–0.16 (75%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin6:27
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- McKegg – Wilson – Sheary3:23
xG 0.11–0.18 (39%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Reaves – Kuhnhackl – Rowney3:26
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Cole5:20
xG 0.65–0.30 (69%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Hunwick – Maatta7:15
xG 0.29–0.26 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Cole – Schultz8:07
xG 0.14–0.47 (23%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Panik – Saad6:45
xG 1.02–0.06 (95%)attempts 13–6goals 3–0
- Bouma – Hayden – Kero5:02
xG 0.26–0.03 (89%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Sharp – Anisimov – DeBrincat10:53
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Kane – Hartman – Schmaltz8:32
xG 0.61–0.73 (45%)attempts 13–7goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook13:27
xG 1.44–0.08 (95%)attempts 21–7goals 3–0
- Forsling – Rutta12:22
xG 0.78–0.54 (59%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
- Kempny – Rutta4:28
xG 0.26–0.08 (76%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).