Sat, Oct 7, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Florida Panthers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 28 | 17 | 115 | 430 |
| FLA | 124 | 116 | 38 | 548 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:30TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Steven Stamkos, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 4:48TBLVladislav NamestnikovPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P1 12:18FLAEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 1:46FLANick BjugstadAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 13:57TBLBrayden PointAssists: Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 6:06FLAColton SceviourAssists: Micheal Haley, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 6:42FLAJared McCannAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Connor Brickley · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–4
- P3 8:34FLAVincent TrocheckGWGAssists: Radim Vrbata, Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.22 xG3–5
- P3 14:12TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Yanni Gourde, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–5
Penalties (18)
- P1 4:26FLAVincent Trocheck: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 5:53TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:53FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:51TBLTyler Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:12TBLNikita Kucherov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:15TBLBrayden Point: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:11FLAMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:11TBLJake Dotchin: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:51TBLRyan Callahan: Holding2 min
- P3 1:40FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:40TBLCedric Paquette: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 1:40FLAKeith Yandle: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:24FLARadim Vrbata: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:47FLAMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:54FLAAleksander Barkov: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:54TBLNikita Kucherov: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:54FLAAleksander Barkov: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:12FLAColton Sceviour: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov10:45
xG 0.78–0.66 (54%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Kunitz – Brown – Paquette4:35
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–10goals 0–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Johnson7:05
xG 0.11–0.24 (32%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Palat – Gourde – Point6:55
xG 0.12–0.71 (14%)attempts 3–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Girardi8:52
xG 0.60–0.19 (76%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Stralman – Sergachev10:55
xG 0.21–0.43 (33%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
- Hedman – Dotchin10:53
xG 0.07–0.76 (9%)attempts 5–14goals 0–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley4:39
xG 0.77–0.10 (88%)attempts 11–2goals 1–1
- Brickley – Bjugstad – McCann4:55
xG 0.50–0.03 (94%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Vrbata – McGinn – Trocheck7:35
xG 0.77–0.44 (64%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov10:41
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – McCoshen10:29
xG 0.91–0.26 (78%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Pysyk – Matheson13:37
xG 1.09–0.77 (59%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- Yandle – Ekblad12:57
xG 0.18–0.15 (56%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).