Sat, Oct 7, 2017·Prudential Center, Newark
Colorado Avalanche 1, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 010 | 115 | 016 | 141 |
| NJD | 117 | 28 | 114 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:04NJDAdam HenriquePPAssists: Will Butcher, Kyle Palmieri · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 2:52NJDJimmy HayesPPGWGAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Will Butcher · Wrist, 0.40 xG0–2
- P2 12:04COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Tyson Jost, J.T. Compher · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 19:32NJDJesper BrattPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Will Butcher · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 14:00NJDJohn MooreSHAssists: Jesper Bratt · Slap, 0.24 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:15COLAnton Lindholm: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 6:11NJDJohn Moore: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:34COLErik Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:59COLNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:04NJDSteven Santini: Holding2 min
- P2 15:21NJDKyle Palmieri: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:44COLErik Johnson: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:04NJDBlake Coleman: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:49NJDMarcus Johansson: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestAndrighetto – MacKinnon – Rantanen9:11
xG 0.38–0.26 (60%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Duchene – Yakupov – Kerfoot8:33
xG 0.47–0.41 (53%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Jost2:27
xG 0.08–0.06 (55%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Compher – Jost3:00
xG 0.33–0.45 (43%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Barrie2:30
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Barrie – Bigras2:21
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Barrie – Nemeth9:11
xG 0.36–0.30 (54%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Johansson – Hischier3:19
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Hall – Zacha – Bratt2:19
xG 0.19–0.07 (72%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hayes – Henrique – Bratt5:21
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Hall – Zacha5:21
xG 0.15–0.17 (46%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Severson2:52
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Moore – Butcher5:27
xG 0.49–0.48 (50%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson6:36
xG 0.40–0.42 (49%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).