Sat, Oct 7, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Buffalo Sabres 3, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 011 | 211 | 17 | 329 |
| NYI | 19 | 314 | 210 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:50NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 5:13NYIJohn TavaresSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 6:03NYICasey CizikasSHAssists: Andrew Ladd · Slap, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 7:00NYIJosh BaileyGWGAssists: Joshua Ho-Sang, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–4
- P2 10:09BUFEvander KaneSHAssists: Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–4
- P2 15:26BUFEvander KaneSHAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrap-around, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 5:39NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Nick Leddy, Casey Cizikas · Tip-in, 0.28 xG2–5
- P3 16:16BUFJack EichelAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Evander Kane · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 19:34NYICasey CizikasENAssists: John Tavares, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.55 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:16NYIJohnny Boychuk: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:02NYIJason Chimera: Interference2 min
- P2 1:08BUFJake McCabe: Interference2 min
- P2 4:50NYIScott Mayfield: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:50NYIScott Mayfield: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:50BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:20BUFKyle Okposo: Holding2 min
- P2 13:55BUFJack Eichel: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:52NYIMathew Barzal: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Kane – Eichel11:00
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Josefson – Larsson – Griffith2:22
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Moulson – Pouliot – Josefson4:35
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Moulson – Josefson – Larsson2:02
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- McCabe – Ristolainen2:11
xG 0.06–0.02 (78%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- McCabe – Antipin11:28
xG 0.28–0.43 (40%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Ristolainen13:19
xG 0.59–0.82 (42%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – Ho-Sang – Beauvillier4:44
xG 0.58–0.26 (69%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
- Eberle – Tavares – Lee8:51
xG 0.34–0.03 (91%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Chimera – Kulemin – Nelson7:27
xG 0.30–0.17 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Ladd – Bailey – Barzal8:50
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Mayfield13:13
xG 0.91–0.30 (75%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy14:05
xG 0.91–0.50 (65%)attempts 12–11goals 2–1
- de Haan – Pelech11:04
xG 0.15–0.17 (46%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).