Sat, Oct 7, 2017·Capital One Arena, Washington
Montréal Canadiens 1, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 07 | 120 | 012 | 139 |
| WSH | 414 | 26 | 03 | 623 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:20WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Jakub Vrana, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 0:46WSHT.J. OshieGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–2
- P1 2:51WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P1 18:10WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Aaron Ness · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–4
- P2 4:50MTLBrendan GallagherSHAssists: Paul Byron · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–4
- P2 16:46WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–5
- P2 18:05WSHNathan WalkerAssists: Devante Smith-Pelly, Jay Beagle · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:02MTLAles Hemsky: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 5:58MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:26WSHJohn Carlson: Holding2 min
- P2 3:07MTLJacob de la Rose: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:29WSHMatt Niskanen: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:53WSHMatt Niskanen: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:05MTLAles Hemsky: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:32WSHBrett Connolly: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Hudon – Lehkonen9:30
xG 0.93–0.15 (86%)attempts 15–3goals 0–1
- Shaw – Danault – Galchenyuk10:54
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Hemsky – Byron – de la Rose6:28
xG 0.17–0.08 (69%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Gallagher – Drouin10:13
xG 0.37–0.79 (32%)attempts 15–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Mete12:22
xG 0.86–0.42 (67%)attempts 17–9goals 0–2
- Petry – Benn10:47
xG 0.63–0.45 (59%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Weber – Alzner9:46
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky9:58
xG 0.73–0.36 (67%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Eller – Chiasson – Connolly8:35
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Beagle – Smith-Pelly – Walker7:48
xG 0.26–0.29 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Vrana11:41
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 5–15goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestChorney – Ness12:05
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Orpik – Carlson13:55
xG 0.28–0.39 (42%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Orlov15:47
xG 0.82–1.15 (42%)attempts 10–24goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).