Sat, Oct 7, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Minnesota Wild 4, Carolina Hurricanes 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 211 | 17 | 19 | 00 | 0 | 427 |
| CAR | 114 | 117 | 210 | 01 | 1 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:30MINJason ZuckerPPAssists: Mathew Dumba, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 11:26CARJoakim NordstromAssists: Marcus Kruger, Brock McGinn · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 18:47MINChris StewartAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Marcus Foligno · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 13:43MINEric StaalAssists: Jason Zucker, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 16:20CARDerek RyanPPAssists: Justin Williams, Victor Rask · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 5:15CARNoah HanifinAssists: Sebastian Aho, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 18:26CARVictor RaskAssists: Sebastian Aho, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 19:59MINMikko KoivuAssists: Eric Staal, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. CAR Sebastian Aho stopped
- 2. MIN Tyler Ennis stopped
- 3. CAR Justin Williams stopped
- 4. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 5. CAR Jaccob Slavin scored
- 6. MIN Eric Staal stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:44CARNoah Hanifin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 6:35CARJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:20MINJonas Brodin: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:26MINChris Stewart: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P2 10:58MINMatt Cullen: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:14MINMike Reilly: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:56MINRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:22CARTrevor van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Coyle – Niederreiter11:08
xG 1.11–0.39 (74%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
- Stewart – Zucker – Eriksson Ek6:26
xG 0.47–0.44 (52%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Cullen – Winnik – Foligno3:27
xG 0.01–0.09 (11%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Koivu – Ennis – Foligno8:27
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba13:27
xG 0.73–0.61 (55%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
- Quincey – Reilly6:53
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon16:31
xG 0.69–0.62 (53%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Kruger – Nordstrom – McGinn6:35
xG 0.32–0.31 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Williams – Rask – Teravainen2:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Rask – Teravainen – Kuokkanen6:54
xG 0.31–0.34 (47%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Lindholm – Aho11:15
xG 0.52–0.74 (41%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce9:18
xG 0.72–0.40 (64%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Faulk – Hanifin7:02
xG 0.17–0.01 (94%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Pesce – Hanifin7:14
xG 0.48–0.50 (49%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).