Sat, Oct 7, 2017·United Center, Chicago
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 09 | 116 | 08 | 133 |
| CHI | 211 | 211 | 17 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:33CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Ryan Hartman, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 6:04CHIBrandon SaadPPGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–2
- P2 10:14CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Brandon Saad · Slap, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 10:45CBJSonny MilanoAssists: Nick Foligno, Gabriel Carlsson · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 12:51CHIJan RuttaAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 14:05CHIRichard PanikUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:05CBJZac Dalpe: Cross checking2 min
- P1 3:05CHILance Bouma: Kneeing2 min
- P1 3:05CBJZac Dalpe: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 3:05CHILance Bouma: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:33CBJSonny Milano: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:38CHITommy Wingels: Holding2 min
- P3 2:51CHIMichal Kempny: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:44CBJZac Dalpe: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Bjorkstrand – Dubois7:45
xG 0.27–0.04 (88%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Calvert – Milano7:20
xG 0.30–0.08 (79%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Foligno – Bjorkstrand – Milano4:04
xG 0.14–0.08 (65%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Dalpe – Sedlak – Hannikainen6:13
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Carlsson15:51
xG 0.55–0.44 (55%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Johnson – Savard14:19
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Jones – Werenski19:15
xG 0.31–0.55 (36%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Bouma – Wingels2:26
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Bouma – Wingels – Hayden2:11
xG 0.07–0.03 (68%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Toews – Panik – Saad12:11
xG 0.43–0.44 (49%)attempts 8–14goals 2–0
- Sharp – Anisimov – DeBrincat5:28
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook16:53
xG 0.45–0.25 (65%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Forsling – Rutta15:11
xG 0.51–0.46 (52%)attempts 10–14goals 3–0
- Kempny – Rutta2:07
xG 0.03–0.02 (55%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).