Sat, Oct 7, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Winnipeg Jets 3, Calgary Flames 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 311 | 012 | 05 | 328 |
| CGY | 115 | 413 | 117 | 645 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:35WPGBrandon TanevSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 10:08CGYTJ BrodiePPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Kris Versteeg · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 12:12WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P1 15:54WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 8:42CGYTJ BrodieAssists: Michael Stone, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 12:42CGYMicheal FerlandPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.48 xG3–3
- P2 17:02CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: TJ Brodie, Curtis Lazar · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
- P2 18:38CGYKris VersteegAssists: Sean Monahan, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–5
- P3 0:16CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Matthew Tkachuk · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:11WPGDmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:32CGYSam Bennett: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:36WPGToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:19CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min
- P2 9:17CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:33WPGShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:59WPGBrandon Tanev: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:01WPGTyler Myers: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:10WPGJacob Trouba: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frolik won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Matthias – Lowry – Petan8:35
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Little – Perreault – Laine11:35
xG 0.42–0.56 (43%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
- Armia – Copp – Tanev5:08
xG 0.02–0.47 (4%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers13:06
xG 0.57–1.16 (33%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Trouba10:09
xG 0.43–0.20 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Myers12:15
xG 0.27–0.81 (25%)attempts 4–17goals 0–1
- Byfuglien – Morrissey16:51
xG 0.50–1.52 (25%)attempts 17–20goals 1–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Glass – Brouwer8:19
xG 1.05–0.23 (82%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lazar – Bennett4:49
xG 0.54–0.09 (86%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk11:17
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Versteeg – Lazar – Bennett4:44
xG 0.24–0.06 (81%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Brodie12:59
xG 1.33–0.56 (70%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
- Stone – Brodie2:27
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Giordano – Hamilton17:04
xG 0.51–0.41 (55%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).