Sat, Oct 7, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Edmonton Oilers 2, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 113 | 08 | 114 | 235 |
| VAN | 26 | 112 | 08 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:08EDMKris RussellAssists: Zack Kassian, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 7:35VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Ben Hutton, Jacob Markstrom · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 9:29VANBrandon SutterUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 0:32VANBo HorvatGWGAssists: Loui Eriksson, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 8:09EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Patrick Maroon, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:46VANThomas Vanek: Bench2 min
- P1 7:15EDMAdam Larsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 10:18EDMPatrick Maroon: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:03VANAlexander Edler: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:48EDMDarnell Nurse: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:49EDMJussi Jokinen: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:42EDMOscar Klefbom: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:30VANSam Gagner: Clipping2 min
- P2 18:13EDMRyan Strome: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:13VANTroy Stecher: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:00EDMConnor McDavid: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:14VANTroy Stecher: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:47EDMEric Gryba: Holding2 min
- P3 14:07VANBrandon Sutter: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins9:04
xG 0.73–0.32 (70%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Maroon – Draisaitl – McDavid13:16
xG 0.45–0.32 (58%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Letestu – Pakarinen – Khaira2:03
xG 0.04–0.02 (62%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Strome – Caggiula5:34
xG 0.13–0.24 (34%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Nurse8:15
xG 0.53–0.12 (82%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Russell – Benning7:46
xG 0.50–0.20 (72%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Larsson – Nurse3:38
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Vanek5:52
xG 0.25–0.06 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Dorsett – Sutter – Granlund9:50
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Gagner – Burmistrov – Virtanen5:19
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Eriksson – Baertschi – Horvat8:26
xG 0.32–0.67 (32%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Edler – Tanev12:23
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Gudbranson12:22
xG 0.65–0.78 (46%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
- Hutton – Stecher9:46
xG 0.24–0.45 (35%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).