Sat, Oct 7, 2017·Honda Center, Anaheim
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Anaheim Ducks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 115 | 16 | 015 | 11 | 337 |
| ANA | 113 | 06 | 14 | 00 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:19PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Nolan Patrick, Jordan Weal · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 12:13ANAAntoine VermetteAssists: Ondrej Kase, Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 13:09PHISean CouturierAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 3:40ANACam FowlerSHUnassisted · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 0:44PHIWayne SimmondsGWGAssists: Sean Couturier, Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:18ANAAntoine Vermette: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:35ANADennis Rasmussen: Holding2 min
- P1 11:08PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:55PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:55ANAKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:56ANAAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:36ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Kneeing2 min
- P2 9:48PHIWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:14ANAAntoine Vermette: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rakell won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Leier – Raffl8:15
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier10:06
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Weal13:54
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Weise – Konecny – Patrick7:12
xG 0.11–0.53 (17%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gostisbehere – Hagg14:05
xG 0.25–0.30 (45%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Gudas – Sanheim9:56
xG 0.39–0.53 (42%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Provorov14:57
xG 0.14–0.46 (24%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestWagner – Shaw – Rasmussen8:26
xG 0.89–0.17 (84%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Vermette – Silfverberg – Kase10:29
xG 0.27–0.07 (80%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Boll – Grant – Fiore5:13
xG 0.19–0.18 (52%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Perry – Cogliano – Rakell15:52
xG 0.19–0.45 (30%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Holzer11:57
xG 1.10–0.18 (86%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Montour12:54
xG 0.21–0.35 (38%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Fowler – Manson18:42
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).