Sat, Oct 7, 2017·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Los Angeles Kings 4, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 217 | 215 | 07 | 439 |
| SJS | 16 | 012 | 07 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:08LAKDustin BrownAssists: Anze Kopitar · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 6:14SJSMikkel BoedkerAssists: Brenden Dillon, Dylan DeMelo · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 19:52LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Jake Muzzin · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 12:07LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Dustin Brown, Derek Forbort · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 14:05LAKNicholas ShoreUnassisted · Wrist, 0.42 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:31LAKKurtis MacDermid: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:29SJSLogan Couture: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:11SJSTomas Hertl: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:57SJSBrenden Dillon: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:34LAKNicholas Shore: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:50LAKJake Muzzin: Holding2 min
- P3 5:17SJSJoonas Donskoi: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:22LAKKyle Clifford: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:27SJSJoe Pavelski: Interference2 min
- P3 13:31SJSJoel Ward: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Shore
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Clifford – Shore8:27
xG 0.84–0.23 (78%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson6:18
xG 0.40–0.02 (95%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo8:28
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Cammalleri – Dowd – Kempe3:07
xG 0.06–0.19 (23%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort11:17
xG 0.96–0.24 (80%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Muzzin – Fantenberg2:21
xG 0.02–0.04 (31%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Folin13:38
xG 0.37–0.62 (37%)attempts 2–13goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestDonskoi – Hertl – Meier6:55
xG 1.17–0.37 (76%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Hansen – Couture – Boedker6:34
xG 0.22–0.31 (42%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Ward – Tierney – Karlsson3:42
xG 0.08–0.45 (15%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Thornton – Pavelski – Labanc10:17
xG 0.17–0.55 (24%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun10:25
xG 0.72–0.56 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Martin – Burns5:45
xG 0.36–0.29 (55%)attempts 7–5goals 0–2
- Martin – DeMelo4:57
xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).