Mon, Oct 9, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
St. Louis Blues 3, New York Islanders 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 011 | 210 | 010 | 04 | 2 | 335 |
| NYI | 08 | 015 | 216 | 03 | 0 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:38STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Paul Stastny · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 15:34STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 13:04NYIAndrew LaddAssists: Jason Chimera, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 19:00NYIAnders LeeAssists: Thomas Hickey, Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.28 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. STL Brayden Schenn scored
- 2. NYI Jordan Eberle stopped
- 3. STL Vladimir Tarasenko scored
- 4. NYI Anthony Beauvillier stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:08STLKyle Brodziak: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:47NYIAdam Pelech: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:53NYIBrock Nelson: Holding2 min
- P1 16:52STLVladimir Sobotka: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:56STLRobert Bortuzzo: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:56STLRobert Bortuzzo: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:34STLCarl Gunnarsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:54NYIAnthony Beauvillier: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:34NYIJoshua Ho-Sang: Delaying game bench2 min
- P3 6:59STLVladimir Tarasenko: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:45NYIJoshua Ho-Sang: Too many men on the ice2 min
- OT 2:50NYINick Leddy: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Sobotka – Tarasenko6:15
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Paajarvi – Jaskin – Barbashev6:03
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz3:27
xG 0.05–0.11 (33%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Megan6:02
xG 0.06–0.31 (17%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Edmundson12:22
xG 0.64–0.55 (54%)attempts 17–19goals 1–0
- Gunnarsson – Parayko12:08
xG 0.11–0.22 (34%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Dunn9:11
xG 0.26–0.45 (37%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Tavares – Lee6:51
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Chimera – Kulemin – Nelson3:37
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Ladd – Bailey – Barzal6:17
xG 0.12–0.22 (35%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Chimera – Kulemin – Cizikas2:23
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy12:11
xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- de Haan – Pelech13:20
xG 0.52–0.47 (52%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Hickey – Mayfield11:17
xG 0.24–0.61 (29%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).