Mon, Oct 9, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New Jersey Devils 6, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 28 | 414 | 09 | 631 |
| BUF | 06 | 111 | 18 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:28NJDStefan NoesenAssists: Brian Gibbons · Tip-in, 0.25 xG1–0
- P1 18:56NJDBrian GibbonsAssists: Nico Hischier, Marcus Johansson · Snap, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 5:02BUFEvander KanePPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 5:23NJDJesper BrattSHGWGAssists: Adam Henrique, Mirco Mueller · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 7:49NJDMarcus JohanssonAssists: Taylor Hall · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–1
- P2 12:19NJDJesper BrattAssists: Taylor Hall, Andy Greene · Tip-in, 0.12 xG5–1
- P2 18:56NJDMarcus JohanssonAssists: Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.15 xG6–1
- P3 17:03BUFEvander KaneAssists: Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.27 xG6–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:26BUFKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:33BUFZemgus Girgensons: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:33NJDMarcus Johansson: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min · PPG
- P2 5:02NJDSteven Santini: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:07BUFNathan Beaulieu: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:07NJDMiles Wood: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:52BUFJason Pominville: Holding2 min
- P3 5:00NJDBen Lovejoy: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:02BUFSeth Griffith: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 10:39NJDStefan Noesen: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestGibbons – Coleman – Noesen4:48
xG 0.89–0.03 (96%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Hall – Zacha – Bratt6:53
xG 0.48–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Henrique – Gibbons – Noesen2:35
xG 0.43–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Hayes – Johansson – Hischier4:57
xG 0.02–0.02 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson5:41
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–3goals 2–0
- Moore – Severson5:10
xG 0.27–0.06 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Butcher3:11
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Pouliot – Okposo – Reinhart3:39
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Larsson – Girgensons – Reinhart2:01
xG 0.05–0.13 (27%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Griffith – Girgensons5:29
xG 0.02–0.21 (9%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Pominville – Kane – Eichel11:34
xG 0.59–0.82 (42%)attempts 8–13goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestBeaulieu – Tennyson4:22
xG 0.54–0.13 (80%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Scandella – Antipin4:51
xG 0.00–0.08 (6%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Antipin2:09
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).