Mon, Oct 9, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Winnipeg Jets 5, Edmonton Oilers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 211 | 219 | 113 | 543 |
| EDM | 020 | 27 | 012 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:56WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 16:27WPGDmitry KulikovAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 12:53EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 13:33EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 16:48WPGNikolaj EhlersGWGAssists: Jacob Trouba, Connor Hellebuyck · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 17:57WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 18:46WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.07 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:22WPGJosh Morrissey: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:38EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:45EDMAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
- P3 6:42WPGBrandon Tanev: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:23EDMZack Kassian: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:35EDMKailer Yamamoto: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestMatthias – Lowry – Tanev7:33
xG 0.31–0.02 (95%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Little – Perreault – Laine10:40
xG 0.60–0.43 (59%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
- Copp – Dano – Tanev2:30
xG 0.12–0.08 (62%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Matthias – Lowry – Petan3:00
xG 0.04–0.06 (36%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Poolman12:28
xG 0.68–0.32 (68%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Myers – Kulikov12:43
xG 0.73–0.47 (61%)attempts 11–17goals 2–1
- Trouba – Morrissey18:14
xG 0.43–0.79 (35%)attempts 14–22goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Kassian – Strome7:13
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Lucic – Nugent-Hopkins – Slepyshev5:58
xG 0.32–0.28 (54%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Maroon – McDavid – Yamamoto3:03
xG 0.05–0.03 (63%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Letestu – Pakarinen – Yamamoto3:23
xG 0.16–0.16 (49%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom15:51
xG 0.89–0.31 (74%)attempts 23–13goals 0–1
- Russell – Benning12:40
xG 0.34–0.60 (36%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
- Gryba – Nurse14:37
xG 0.38–0.69 (36%)attempts 15–15goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).