Wed, Oct 11, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New Jersey Devils 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 210 | 212 | 29 | 631 |
| TOR | 213 | 017 | 120 | 350 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:33TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 9:07NJDMiles WoodAssists: Steven Santini, Will Butcher · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 10:45NJDMiles WoodAssists: Adam Henrique, Will Butcher · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 13:33TORDominic MooreAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Ron Hainsey · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 9:58NJDPavel ZachaPPAssists: Jesper Bratt, Marcus Johansson · Snap, 0.21 xG3–2
- P2 14:54NJDBrian GibbonsSHGWGAssists: Adam Henrique · Snap, 0.00 xG4–2
- P3 3:35NJDBlake ColemanUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG5–2
- P3 13:34TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, Patrick Marleau · Slap, 0.26 xG5–3
- P3 17:21NJDPavel ZachaAssists: John Moore · Snap, 0.01 xG6–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 7:24NJDBrian Gibbons: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:30TORMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:30NJDStefan Noesen: Instigator2 min
- P1 11:30NJDStefan Noesen: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:30NJDStefan Noesen: Misconduct10 min
- P1 14:03TORLeo Komarov: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:36TORNikita Zaitsev: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:44NJDBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:26TORJake Gardiner: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:15TORJames van Riemsdyk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:55NJDMiles Wood: Holding2 min
- P2 14:44NJDJohn Moore: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:44NJDPavel Zacha: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:22NJDWill Butcher: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:59NJDSteven Santini: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:48TORCalle Rosen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestGibbons – Coleman – Noesen4:20
xG 0.15–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Hayes – Coleman – Wood2:28
xG 0.06–0.01 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Johansson – Zacha – Bratt4:58
xG 0.29–0.27 (51%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Hayes – Henrique – Wood4:10
xG 0.11–0.21 (35%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Santini11:07
xG 0.67–0.56 (55%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Butcher – Mueller8:19
xG 0.15–0.47 (25%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Moore – Severson9:39
xG 0.33–0.77 (30%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews6:10
xG 0.62–0.15 (80%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Marleau – Komarov – Kadri6:02
xG 0.63–0.26 (71%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Moore – Martin – Brown4:33
xG 0.07–0.15 (33%)attempts 3–4goals 0–2
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner7:46
xG 0.25–0.52 (33%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev11:35
xG 0.61–0.27 (70%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Rielly9:09
xG 0.58–0.36 (62%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Rosen – Borgman9:07
xG 0.35–0.72 (32%)attempts 12–8goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).