Wed, Oct 11, 2017·Capital One Arena, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 19 | 115 | 112 | 336 |
| WSH | 07 | 18 | 17 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:22PITKris LetangPPAssists: Bryan Rust, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–0
- P2 8:20PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Tom Kuhnhackl, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 19:07WSHChristian DjoosAssists: Lars Eller, Brett Connolly · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 0:38PITConor ShearyPPGWGAssists: Justin Schultz, Olli Maatta · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 12:51WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Christian Djoos, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:27WSHMatt Niskanen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 10:33WSHBraden Holtby: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P1 13:10PITChad Ruhwedel: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:43WSHJohn Carlson: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:57PITPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:26WSHChristian Djoos: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:20WSHMatt Niskanen: Interference2 min
- P2 19:55WSHAlex Chiasson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:38PITGreg McKegg: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:56PITGreg McKegg: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Hagelin11:12
xG 0.86–0.31 (74%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – McKegg – Sheary4:00
xG 0.51–0.08 (87%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel7:20
xG 0.41–0.12 (77%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Sheary3:26
xG 0.12–0.14 (46%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin13:20
xG 1.52–0.29 (84%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- Maatta – Ruhwedel9:02
xG 0.66–0.50 (57%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Schultz13:34
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky11:50
xG 0.51–0.35 (60%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Vrana10:47
xG 0.48–0.56 (46%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Beagle – Smith-Pelly – Graovac4:05
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
- Eller – Chiasson – Connolly6:48
xG 0.17–0.92 (15%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Djoos4:38
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Orpik – Djoos4:53
xG 0.27–0.04 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 2–0
- Orpik – Ness3:14
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).