Wed, Oct 11, 2017·Honda Center, Anaheim
New York Islanders 2, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 121 | 011 | 19 | 241 |
| ANA | 16 | 116 | 18 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:37ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Josh Manson, Ryan Getzlaf · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 13:09NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Scott Mayfield, Joshua Ho-Sang · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 8:39ANARickard RakellAssists: Cam Fowler, Andrew Cogliano · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 5:32ANAPatrick EavesGWGAssists: Josh Manson, Ryan Getzlaf · Slap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 7:57NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Calvin de Haan, Joshua Ho-Sang · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:56ANAAntoine Vermette: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:56NYICalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:33ANACam Fowler: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:25NYIScott Mayfield: Elbowing2 min
- P2 8:45NYIJoshua Ho-Sang: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:57ANAAntoine Vermette: Interference2 min
- P2 16:29ANAJared Boll: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 2:57ANAJared Boll: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:32NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Tavares – Lee8:09
xG 0.97–0.34 (74%)attempts 12–5goals 0–2
- Ladd – Bailey – Cizikas2:21
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Chimera – Kulemin – Nelson3:00
xG 0.15–0.05 (76%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Ladd – Cizikas – Ho-Sang2:40
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Mayfield12:44
xG 0.96–0.27 (78%)attempts 22–8goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy11:34
xG 0.75–0.65 (53%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- de Haan – Pelech11:32
xG 0.47–0.56 (45%)attempts 11–11goals 1–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Boll – Grant – Rasmussen3:12
xG 0.08–0.16 (34%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Eaves11:15
xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Vermette – Wagner – Shaw8:18
xG 0.16–0.38 (30%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Rakell11:26
xG 0.61–0.86 (42%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Montour11:07
xG 0.34–0.39 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Fowler – Manson14:51
xG 0.60–0.77 (44%)attempts 10–15goals 3–0
- Bieksa – Holzer11:23
xG 0.32–1.11 (23%)attempts 10–24goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).