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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 12, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise

St. Louis Blues 2, Florida Panthers 5

Away

St. Louis Blues

2

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 59% of the time.

FLA winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
STL013116110239
FLA011311216538

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 1:14STLPaul StastnyPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–0
  2. P2 1:26FLAIan McCoshenAssists: Connor Brickley, Nick Bjugstad · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
  3. P2 2:45FLAVincent TrocheckSHAssists: Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
  4. P2 7:42FLAJared McCannPPGWGAssists: Radim Vrbata, Aaron Ekblad · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–3
  5. P3 3:16FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.12 xG1–4
  6. P3 14:02FLANick BjugstadAssists: Jared McCann, Connor Brickley · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–5
  7. P3 18:51STLVince DunnAssists: Scottie Upshall, Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.04 xG2–5
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 3:18STLVince Dunn: Holding2 min
  2. P1 5:14STLScottie Upshall: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 12:53STLChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 12:53FLAMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 17:14FLADerek MacKenzie: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  6. P2 0:52FLARadim Vrbata: Slashing2 min · PPG
  7. P2 2:16FLAAlexander Petrovic: Cross checking2 min
  8. P2 6:05STLScottie Upshall: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min · PPG
  9. P2 16:09FLAIan McCoshen: Tripping2 min
  10. P2 17:06FLADerek MacKenzie: Holding2 min
  11. P3 5:04STLColton Parayko: Slashing2 min
  12. P3 15:06FLAMicheal Haley: Misconduct10 min
  13. P3 15:06STLBrayden Schenn: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 15:06STLBrayden Schenn: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
46% to win54% to win
← STL attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Trocheck
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLFLA
39Shots on goal38
3.7Expected goals3.1
61Shot attempts57
31Faceoffs won38
5Power plays5
25Penalty minutes25
13Hits18
11Blocked shots13
9Giveaways13
4Takeaways14

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

St. Louis Blues

Forward lines

  1. bestSchenn – Schwartz – Barbashev5:28

    xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0

  2. Jaskin – Sundqvist – Barbashev2:08

    xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

  3. Thorburn – Upshall – Brodziak6:25

    xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0

  4. Schenn – Schwartz – Jaskin2:13

    xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestBortuzzo – Dunn6:49

    xG 0.34–0.05 (88%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0

  2. Parayko – Dunn4:43

    xG 0.16–0.07 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0

  3. Pietrangelo – Dunn3:04

    xG 0.14–0.08 (65%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov7:50

    xG 0.38–0.02 (94%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0

  2. Vrbata – Huberdeau – Barkov3:51

    xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0

  3. McGinn – Dadonov – Trocheck3:27

    xG 0.27–0.04 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0

  4. Brickley – Bjugstad – McCann7:17

    xG 0.25–0.11 (71%)attempts 7–6goals 2–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestYandle – Ekblad13:00

    xG 0.81–0.45 (65%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0

  2. Petrovic – McCoshen14:02

    xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0

  3. Pysyk – Matheson12:07

    xG 0.33–0.51 (39%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 3.1 xGSTL 3.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLASTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 43/100 · #725 of 1271 this seasonSwing 1.01 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 35% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 59% of the time.

FLA winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).