Thu, Oct 12, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Winnipeg Jets 4, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 19 | 26 | 15 | 420 |
| VAN | 18 | 012 | 112 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:25VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Brock Boeser, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–1
- P1 9:04WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Jacob Trouba, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 15:31WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Bryan Little, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 18:44WPGTyler MyersSHGWGAssists: Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 12:43VANChris TanevAssists: Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 19:55WPGNikolaj EhlersENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.63 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:36WPGMarko Dano: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:57VANDerek Dorsett: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:18WPGBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:49WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:07VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:21WPGMathieu Perreault: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:57WPGShawn Matthias: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLittle – Perreault – Laine10:39
xG 0.26–0.04 (87%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Copp – Dano – Petan4:45
xG 0.00–0.10 (5%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Matthias – Lowry – Tanev9:18
xG 0.22–0.38 (37%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers15:21
xG 0.20–0.40 (33%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey14:08
xG 0.54–0.49 (52%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Myers – Kulikov15:14
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Poolman11:45
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Vanek10:14
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Granlund – Virtanen6:26
xG 0.14–0.00 (97%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Baertschi – Horvat – Boeser10:23
xG 0.25–0.20 (55%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Dorsett – Gagner – Sutter8:51
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Stecher10:10
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Tanev9:42
xG 0.30–0.10 (76%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Edler – Tanev4:54
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).