Fri, Oct 13, 2017·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Rangers 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 111 | 018 | 09 | 138 |
| CBJ | 013 | 112 | 218 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:35NYRKevin HayesUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 19:14CBJSeth JonesAssists: Zach Werenski, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 7:25CBJArtemi PanarinGWGAssists: Seth Jones, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 19:54CBJLukas SedlakENAssists: Ryan Murray · Backhand, 0.74 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:51CBJAlexander Wennberg: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:27NYRKevin Hayes: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:17CBJAlexander Wennberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:15NYRRyan McDonagh: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:41CBJLukas Sedlak: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:03NYRPaul Carey: Holding2 min
- P3 8:40NYRBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:40CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:45CBJLukas Sedlak: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Nash – Zuccarello – Hayes9:18
xG 0.69–0.70 (50%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Miller – Vesey10:58
xG 0.89–1.06 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich8:44
xG 0.45–0.76 (37%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Cracknell – Grabner – Carey4:31
xG 0.00–0.40 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Holden10:51
xG 0.61–0.35 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Staal – Shattenkirk10:11
xG 0.63–0.60 (51%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Holden2:09
xG 0.15–0.33 (32%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Wennberg – Panarin11:18
xG 1.25–0.77 (62%)attempts 21–9goals 2–0
- Foligno – Milano – Dubois4:13
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Anderson10:15
xG 0.66–0.66 (50%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Dalpe – Sedlak – Dubois3:08
xG 0.08–0.21 (28%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard13:34
xG 1.25–0.31 (80%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Murray – Carlsson7:53
xG 0.68–0.29 (70%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski13:09
xG 1.11–1.21 (48%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).