Fri, Oct 13, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Anaheim Ducks 1, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 04 | 04 | 110 | 118 |
| COL | 118 | 012 | 29 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:58COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Sven Andrighetto · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 2:14ANABrandon MontourSHAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Logan Shaw · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 14:21COLTyson BarriePPGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Sven Andrighetto · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 19:59COLNikita ZadorovENAssists: Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.45 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:54ANANick Ritchie: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 10:51ANARickard Rakell: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:34ANABrandon Montour: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:27ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:01ANADennis Rasmussen: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:59COLJ.T. Compher: Holding2 min
- P2 16:45ANAJosh Manson: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:38ANACam Fowler: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:50ANABrandon Montour: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:04COLCarl Soderberg: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Shaw – Kerdiles – Rasmussen2:35
xG 0.05–0.04 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Eaves – Silfverberg – Rakell12:05
xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
- Vermette – Perry – Cogliano9:19
xG 0.21–0.47 (31%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Grant – Wagner – Ritchie6:25
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fowler – Manson13:35
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Holzer – Megna9:34
xG 0.04–0.31 (12%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Montour14:37
xG 0.32–0.71 (31%)attempts 12–21goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Andrighetto – Rantanen4:59
xG 0.57–0.07 (89%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto7:56
xG 0.45–0.06 (89%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Andrighetto – Compher – Rantanen2:33
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Yakupov – Kerfoot2:10
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Bigras5:43
xG 0.30–0.03 (92%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Zadorov11:37
xG 0.49–0.31 (61%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Barberio – Zadorov2:13
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).