Fri, Oct 13, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Ottawa Senators 6, Calgary Flames 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 16 | 111 | 411 | 628 |
| CGY | 09 | 08 | 08 | 025 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:15OTTCody CeciGWGAssists: Tom Pyatt, Nate Thompson · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 18:43OTTDerick BrassardAssists: Mark Stone, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 1:08OTTMike HoffmanPPAssists: Cody Ceci, Kyle Turris · Slap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P3 5:18OTTMark StoneAssists: Mark Borowiecki, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–0
- P3 7:29OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Thomas Chabot, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–0
- P3 16:23OTTChris WidemanPPAssists: Kyle Turris, Zack Smith · Slap, 0.05 xG6–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:08OTTNate Thompson: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 8:24CGYSam Bennett: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:32CGYMicheal Ferland: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:32OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:02OTTRyan Dzingel: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:12CGYMikael Backlund: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 16:43CGYDougie Hamilton: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:16CGYJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:46CGYMicheal Ferland: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P3 4:30OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:31CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Thompson – Pyatt – Pageau3:25
xG 0.08–0.06 (55%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau5:38
xG 0.02–0.22 (10%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Ryan – Brassard – Stone9:30
xG 0.12–0.35 (26%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Dzingel7:55
xG 0.11–0.51 (18%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Chabot4:39
xG 0.19–0.06 (74%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Ceci2:55
xG 0.04–0.01 (77%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Wideman – Claesson2:46
xG 0.02–0.05 (28%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk10:26
xG 0.67–0.17 (80%)attempts 20–4goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Lazar5:32
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Jagr – Versteeg – Bennett4:57
xG 0.17–0.03 (84%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Stajan – Brouwer – Ferland5:39
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Brodie12:29
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton14:37
xG 0.58–0.35 (62%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
- Stone – Bartkowski11:35
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).