Sat, Oct 14, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 28 | 17 | 06 | 11 | 422 |
| MTL | 212 | 18 | 013 | 01 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:19MTLJeff PetryAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Artturi Lehkonen · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 7:32TORJames van RiemsdykUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 8:16TORAuston MatthewsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 16:49MTLAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: Charles Hudon · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 11:33MTLJonathan DrouinAssists: Karl Alzner · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 12:40TORPatrick MarleauAssists: Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–3
- OT 0:48TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: William Nylander · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:00MTLKarl Alzner: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:22TORNazem Kadri: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:04MTLBrandon Davidson: Holding2 min
- P2 17:38TORTyler Bozak: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Komarov – Kadri12:37
xG 0.58–0.25 (69%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner10:17
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 9–9goals 1–2
- Fehr – Martin – Brown6:42
xG 0.12–0.03 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews14:47
xG 0.22–0.66 (25%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrick – Borgman13:18
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev20:31
xG 0.51–0.61 (46%)attempts 16–18goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Rielly15:35
xG 0.39–0.60 (39%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Byron – Gallagher12:56
xG 0.59–0.35 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Shaw – Danault – Hudon12:04
xG 0.22–0.18 (54%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Lehkonen – Drouin10:50
xG 0.19–0.22 (47%)attempts 8–10goals 2–1
- Hemsky – Galchenyuk – de la Rose7:56
xG 0.03–0.61 (5%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Davidson12:01
xG 0.70–0.12 (85%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Weber – Mete19:22
xG 0.73–0.50 (59%)attempts 17–24goals 0–0
- Petry – Alzner15:48
xG 0.16–0.86 (16%)attempts 10–12goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).